US mortgage rates hit 7.45% as Treasury volatility surges

  • US mortgage rates reached 7.45% as Treasury yields and bond-market volatility climbed.
  • The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF fell 1.3% to $79.42 on Thursday.
  • The 30-year Treasury yield reached about 5.48%, its highest level since 2004.

US 30-year mortgage rates rose to 7.45%, their highest level since November 2023, as Treasury yields climbed and the ICE BofA MOVE Index, a gauge of US bond-market volatility, jumped about 29.69% for the week. The 10-year Treasury yield again moved above 5.2%, reaching 5.2% on Thursday before easing to about 5.18% on Friday, while the 30-year yield rose to roughly 5.48%, its highest since 2004. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF fell 1.3% to $79.42 on Thursday, a new reported record low, illustrating the heightened sensitivity of long-duration bonds to rising yields. Traders focused on hawkish Federal Reserve signals, elevated inflation expectations, strong economic data, fiscal concerns and limited progress in US-Iran negotiations. Markets put the probability of a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase next month at about 66%, while higher income from Treasury holdings has not offset price losses in long-dated bond funds.

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