Bitcoin analyst Benjamin Cowen said the cryptocurrency's strength has contradicted his earlier expectations that rising energy prices, bond yields and the dollar index would pressure risky assets. He acknowledged that Bitcoin moving above its May peak invalidated his previous forecasts, while saying the broader macroeconomic picture still supports his thesis. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.1%, the two-year yield climbed to approximately 4.9%, and the Federal Reserve's policy rate remained at 4%, which Cowen said could indicate that monetary policy is not restrictive enough to control inflation. Stocks and precious metals have faced pressure from higher rates and a stronger dollar, but Bitcoin has remained resilient. Cowen pointed to Bitcoin trading above its 50-week moving average and a golden cross (a bullish moving-average pattern) followed by a pullback and rebound as signs that the market may have regained strength. He said Bitcoin's move above its May peak requires a reassessment of expectations, although a fourth-quarter pullback could still produce a higher low rather than a new low. Cowen previously assigned a 35% probability to a Bitcoin bottom and a 65% probability to a new bottom, but said the balance has shifted toward a bullish outlook. He does not consider the uptrend fully confirmed: continued weekly closes above current levels would strengthen the case that Bitcoin has bottomed, while a weekly close below $83,000 could create a new fourth-quarter correction scenario. Even then, he said, Bitcoin would not necessarily need to set a new low. Cowen added that Bitcoin's rise despite a strengthening dollar shows the market may continue to diverge from macroeconomic indicators.