A CryptoQuant analyst said a bitcoin cost-basis crossover has confirmed a new bull market, marking the fifth historical occurrence after 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2023. The measure compares the estimated purchase prices of short-term holders with active long-term holders, excluding long-term coins that have not moved for seven years. The latest signal followed a July indication that the bear market was nearing its end, although the analyst cautioned that historical signals can fail. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.06 billion in net inflows from Sept. 21 to Sept. 23, with daily inflows slowing from $999 million to $346.9 million. The flows show strong demand during the period but do not prove that ETF buying caused the crossover. The development adds to earlier on-chain signals, including bitcoin’s move above its $80,500 365-day average and an MVRV crossover identified by Glassnode, as the cryptocurrency approaches the $95,000-$97,000 resistance area.