JPMorgan’s commodities team has stopped providing reliable oil-price forecasts as the ongoing Iran conflict drives extreme market volatility and uncertainty. The conflict has disrupted about a quarter of global oil shipments, including traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy supplies under pressure. The development adds to the bank’s earlier doubts about how and when the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran might end and whether a potential 2026 US-Iran deal could include reconstruction funding. Market behavior and sub-market odds indicate weaker confidence in such funding while Hormuz disruptions persist. Observers are focused on possible Israeli military action, diplomatic efforts involving mediators from Qatar and Pakistan, and statements from Donald Trump or Javad Zarif. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or a negotiating breakthrough would improve the prospects for an agreement, while increased enrichment activity or new military strikes would point to weaker prospects. Vera is promoted as a source of live prediction-market analysis.