JPMorgan sees 38% upside in Genius Sports shares after 47% YTD plunge

  • JPMorgan initiated coverage of Genius Sports with an overweight rating and an $8 price target.
  • Genius Sports shares have plunged 47% year to date amid stronger prediction-market competition.
  • Genius Sports supplies real-time live-event data to sportsbooks and acquired Legend earlier this year.

JPMorgan initiated coverage of Genius Sports with an overweight rating and an $8 price target, implying 38% upside from Thursday's close. Analyst Samuel Nielsen said the stock's risk-reward profile is favorable, supported by diversified above-market growth, strong execution, improving profitability and free cash flow, and an attractive valuation. Genius Sports provides real-time data from live-event feeds to sportsbooks and trades at roughly five times its fiscal year 2027 enterprise value, according to JPMorgan. Its shares have fallen 47% year to date as sportsbooks face increased competition from prediction markets, while the acquisition of digital sports and gaming media network Legend also weighed on the stock earlier this year. Nielsen said the pullback creates a buying opportunity and that Genius Sports trades meaningfully below DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment. LSEG data shows that 19 of 22 analysts covering the company rate it buy or strong buy.

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