Goldman Sachs sees 26% Costco upside after quarterly earnings beat

  • Costco reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and earnings above analyst estimates, sending shares 2.6% higher to $919.50 on Friday.
  • Goldman Sachs lowered its Costco price target to $1,134 from $1,159, implying 26% upside; BMO Capital Markets projects a 45% return.
  • Costco received $184 million in tariff refunds, reinvested most of the money in price reductions, and plans 28 net new warehouses in fiscal 2027.

Goldman Sachs retained its buy rating on Costco Wholesale after the retailer reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results, although it lowered its price target to $1,134 from $1,159. The revised target implies 26% upside from Thursday’s close. Costco shares rose 2.6% to $919.50 on Friday and were up 7.6% year-to-date in 2026, but remained below their 52-week high of $1,096.50 and Wall Street’s consensus price target. BMO Capital Markets projects a 45% return. Costco reported earnings of $6.60 per share versus the LSEG consensus of $6.53 and revenue of $95.72 billion, while executives highlighted record gasoline demand, pharmacy and travel growth, and more than $3.2 billion in estimated member savings against average pump prices. The company received $184 million in tariff refunds during the quarter, about one-third of the total refunds expected in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, and said it was reinvesting most of the money through price reductions. Goldman analyst Kate McShane said Costco is using tariff refunds for price investments and is positioned to benefit from younger members and expanded delivery options. Goldman also cited plans to open 28 net new warehouses in fiscal 2027. LSEG data showed 25 of 39 covering analysts rated the stock buy or strong buy, while JPMorgan, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reiterated buy-equivalent ratings.

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