Brazil mid-September inflation hits 4.47%, exceeding forecasts

  • Brazilian inflation accelerated to 4.47% in mid-September, exceeding the 4.30% consensus.
  • The Brazilian real strengthened slightly to 5.12 per US dollar.
  • The BCB cut Selic to 13.75% while Copom minutes took a hawkish tone.

Brazil’s mid-September annual inflation accelerated to 4.47% from 4.24%, exceeding the 4.30% market consensus, while consumer prices rose 0.70% after falling 0.40% in mid-August and surpassed the 0.53% forecast. Housing costs increased 2.07% as electricity prices rose, and food and beverage prices climbed 0.4%. The report said the 12-month inflation rate had moved back above the upper bound of the BCB’s target range, raising questions about the continuation of Selic easing. The BCB cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 13.75% in September and left its next steps open, while Copom minutes were more hawkish than expected. The real strengthened slightly to 5.12 per dollar, but a narrowing interest-rate differential continued to support the US dollar. Falling oil prices eased energy-related pressures, although global yields rose above recent historical levels before the oil-driven pullback halted their advance. The US Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target rate at its latest meeting. Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield had fallen to 14.1% in late September, and a recent election poll showed President Lula maintaining a numerical lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff.

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