The nonpartisan Cook Political Report projects Democrats will most likely gain five to 15 House seats in the upcoming midterm elections, potentially producing a 220-230 seat majority and ending Republican control. Cook shifted 15 races toward Democrats, now favors Democrats in 208 races versus 205 for Republicans, and rates 17 Republican-held seats as Toss Ups compared with five Democratic-held seats. Republicans retain a record $13 million cash-on-hand advantage through the National Republican Congressional Committee, while redistricting gains in Republican-led states are largely offset by new Democratic maps in California and Utah. The median Toss Up district backed President Donald Trump by seven percentage points in 2024, but Cook said Trump is underwater in many competitive districts, largely because of dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy. Florida remains structurally Republican, with a 1.55 million voter-registration advantage and nearly $121 million raised by GOP gubernatorial candidate Rep. Byron Donalds, more than 10 times former Rep. David Jolly’s total. Yet polling has put Florida’s governor’s and Senate races near the margin of error, Decision Desk HQ rates the governor’s race a toss-up, and Democrats cite Trump’s war in Iran, higher gas prices, immigration policies, affordability concerns, Hispanic voter shifts, data-center disputes and a $10 million taxpayer-money scandal involving Sen. Ashley Moody and Attorney General James Uthmeier. Democratic gains could improve the party’s chances of retaking Congress and influence the 2028 presidential contest because Florida has 30 electoral votes.