Financial markets are assigning nearly 70% odds to the Federal Reserve delivering another quarter-point interest-rate increase at its Oct. 27-28 meeting, lifting the target range to 4% to 4.25%. The expectation has strengthened after the central bank raised rates last week in its first major move in years to combat inflation. Recent data showing stronger business activity, retail sales and employment has fueled concern that the economy is gaining momentum rather than slowing. The meeting will take place days before midterm elections that will determine how much leeway President Trump has to pursue his agenda during the latter half of his term. The Federal Reserve says it remains politically independent and does not consider the electoral calendar, while its history includes rate changes before elections when economic conditions warranted them. That standard is under heightened scrutiny after Mr. Trump accused the Fed of political motivations and criticized individual policymakers for resisting his demands for substantially lower borrowing costs. Traders in federal funds futures (contracts tracking expected official interest rates) now price the move at roughly 70% odds. The latest evidence came from an S&P Global survey showing U.S. business activity reached a five-year high in September, following a strong retail-sales report the previous week and a better-than-expected jobs report earlier this month.