Bitcoin’s adjusted MVRV indicator has shifted from an early bull phase into a bull-market regime, but rising profit-taking and unrealized gains are increasing the risk of a deeper correction. The indicator’s 30-day moving average crossed above its 365-day average on Aug. 20, signaling an early bull phase, while reports dated the move above the 1.0 baseline to Sept. 20 and, in a later update, Sept. 26. Bitcoin traded at $71,255 on Aug. 20, $80,691 on Sept. 20 and $84,156 on Sept. 26. The transition was the sixth early-bull-to-bull shift since 2012. Bitcoin then consolidated around $83,000-$85,000 for four days after rising from $76,000 to $87,000 the previous week. Historically strong October performance, Bitcoin leaving exchanges and nearly $3 billion of spot ETF inflows over 10 days supported the bullish case. However, unrealized profit margins reached 33%, the highest since December 2024, while profit-taking rose to 25,700 BTC, the highest in 2026. Those measures are consistent with a rally losing momentum and leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a correction deeper than the previous week’s pullback.