Democrats’ Senate path grows feasible as control becomes a four-seat battle

  • Democrats have improved their chances of taking Senate control from Republicans.
  • Democrats hold 47 seats to Republicans’ 53 and need four Republican-held seats.
  • Cook Political Report now describes the Senate contest as a coin flip.

Democrats’ prospects of winning the Senate have improved as President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and economic frustration weaken Republicans. Democrats hold 47 seats to Republicans’ 53 and must retain every seat while capturing four Republican-held seats, including at least two in states Trump won by double digits in 2024. Cook Political Report now describes control as a true coin flip, with Georgia, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Nebraska and Minnesota among the key contests. North Carolina appears to be Democrats’ strongest pickup opportunity, while Republicans are targeting Democratic-held seats in New Hampshire and Michigan. The races are shaped by candidate controversies, retirements, Trump’s standing, local economic concerns and the candidates’ ability to attract crossover voters.

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