Dollar steadies near two-month high as oil rises on U.S.-Iran risks

  • Oil prices rose for a second session as U.S.-Iran conflict risks and uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz shipping outweighed recovering Gulf exports.
  • Brent reached $105.91 a barrel and WTI $93.32, while an earlier settlement report placed Brent at $105.28.
  • September crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers reached 12.8 million barrels a day, while Saudi pipeline flows recovered to about 3.5 million barrels a day.

The dollar index was flat at 101.20 near a two-month high while oil prices rose for a second straight session as uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran conflict, negotiations and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sustained supply concerns. Brent gained 63 cents, or 0.6%, to $105.91 a barrel by 0002 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate rose 72 cents, or 0.8%, to $93.32; an earlier market report said Brent later settled nearly 1% higher at $105.28. Crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers reached 12.8 million barrels a day in September, their highest level since February, according to preliminary Kpler data, but much of the additional Gulf supply moved through less efficient and more expensive ship-to-ship transfers. Recent U.S.-Iran discussions in New York and separate talks involving mediators produced limited progress, while Trump rejected Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Iranian officials reportedly questioned whether an agreement could be reached before the U.S. midterm elections in November, although further talks were expected to consider an amended version of Iran’s proposal. Saudi Arabia restored East-West pipeline flows to around 3.5 million barrels a day, offering an alternative route to the Red Sea, while the United States considered regulatory relief for broader red-dyed diesel sales as an alternative to a diesel export ban. Higher oil prices, refinery disruptions, stronger demand for prompt crude and possible diesel restrictions raised inflation concerns. Treasury yields remained above 5% at multi-decade highs, supporting the dollar as traders assigned a 73% probability to a quarter-point Federal Reserve increase at the October meeting and almost fully priced four quarter-point increases over the following 12 months. Markets awaited U.S. PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls data, as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s expected 25-basis-point increase to 4.60%.

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