Bank of Japan could raise rates again in October, former policy executive says

  • Bank of Japan minutes showed policymakers urged faster rate increases amid rising inflation risks.
  • Japan's 10-year JGB yield reached 3.115% Friday, its highest level since August 1996.
  • BOJ lifted its rate to 1.25% in September after holding it at 1% in July.

The Bank of Japan could raise its benchmark rate for a second consecutive month in October, earlier than most economists expect, according to Kazuo Momma, a former executive director in charge of monetary policy. Momma puts the chance of an October increase at 20% to 30%, while overnight swaps pricing assigned a 30% probability to a move on Oct. 30. Minutes from the BOJ's July 30-31 meeting showed policymakers were increasingly concerned about upside inflation risks, with some arguing that rates should rise faster as underlying inflation approached the 2% target. The BOJ held its rate at 1% in July after a June increase, then raised it to 1.25% in September, a 31-year high. Policymakers noted that the rate remained below the estimated 1.1% to 2.5% nominal neutral-rate range. Japan's service-sector inflation accelerated in August at its fastest annual pace in more than two years, while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield reached 3.115% on Friday, its highest level since August 1996. Analysts expect the BOJ to raise its inflation forecasts at its Oct. 29-30 meeting and see another rate increase as soon as October or December.

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