$202 billion Treasury settlement scheduled for September 30

  • Treasury will settle $202 billion of coupon securities on September 30.
  • The offering includes $19 billion of TIPS and $183 billion of notes.
  • SOFR was 3.88%, below the 3.90% bank-reserve rate, before settlement.

A $202 billion U.S. Treasury coupon settlement on September 30 will test overnight financing conditions at quarter-end. The offering comprises a reopened 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security with a $19 billion face amount, plus two-, five- and seven-year notes totaling $69 billion, $70 billion and $44 billion, respectively. Treasury estimates that $143.58 billion of publicly held coupon debt will mature that day, leaving $58.42 billion in net new face value. The Federal Home Loan Bank of New York says funding markets remain calm but warns that the additional supply could push repo borrowing rates higher. SOFR, a broad measure of overnight Treasury-backed borrowing costs, was 3.88% on September 24, up from 3.85% on September 18 and 21, but still below the 3.90% rate paid on bank reserves. The net new face value does not represent an observed cash drain or decline in bank reserves, since auction prices, inflation adjustments and Treasury spending can change the cash effect. Bills settling October 1 are excluded from the coupon figure. Any effect on Bitcoin remains unobserved: stable repo rates and Bitcoin funding after settlement would provide no evidence of the anticipated spillover, while simultaneous moves in SOFR and Bitcoin would not establish causation.

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