Gold falls below $4,200 as oil prices revive Fed hike bets

  • Gold XAUUSD fell below $4,200, extending its decline during Asian trading.
  • 66% of traders now price another Fed rate increase in October.
  • US economic data are scheduled from Tuesday through Friday this week.

Gold XAUUSD fell below $4,200, extending a decline of more than 1.5% during Asian trading and pushing the metal toward a monthly loss exceeding 4%. The move toward $4,170 followed bullion’s failure to hold around $4,220 and marked its lowest level since early August. Silver slipped below $62, while platinum and palladium each fell more than 2%, broadening the retreat across precious metals. Rising oil prices have revived expectations of another Fed rate increase, while a stronger dollar and higher bond yields make non-interest-bearing metals less attractive. The dollar index reached a two-month high near 101.39 and the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.52%. Traders now assign a 66% probability to another Fed increase in October and price about 90 basis points of additional tightening through late 2027. Gold’s first rebound test is $4,200, with sustained weakness potentially bringing $4,150 and then $4,100 into view. Silver faces resistance at $62 and could fall toward $60 if selling continues. US job openings, PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls are due Tuesday through Friday, with economists expecting 85,000 new jobs and unemployment near 4.1%. Softer data could ease yields and the dollar, while hot PCE inflation or stronger payrolls would reinforce the higher-for-longer outlook and leave gold and silver vulnerable to further declines.

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