U.S. diesel prices have surged past $6 a gallon on average, with some truckers reportedly paying $1,500 to fill a tank and turning down loads as fuel costs threaten to consume their earnings. California prices are higher, prompting carriers to reduce loads and impose fuel surcharges. The resulting pressure is spreading through supply chains alongside already elevated trucking expenses, container-shipping rates and prices charged by railroads, FedEx and the U.S. Postal Service. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn and Beimnet Abebe are examining the effects on trucking, goods prices and inflation. Prediction markets price a 2.8% chance of a U.S. diesel export-ban announcement by the end of September and an 11.5% chance by the end of October. Investors are watching President Trump, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, diesel prices and further changes in trucking activity for signs of a policy response.