Democrats have moved to +3.8 on Kalshi’s American Power Index, or KPOW, their strongest level this year with 36 days remaining before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The gauge combines the current US balance of political power with Kalshi market expectations, assigning 75% weight to future election outcomes and 25% to the current balance of power. KPOW shifted sharply toward Democrats in September and moves in real time as market prices change. The index ranges from a maximum 50-point Democratic advantage to a maximum 50-point Republican advantage and covers forecasts for House, Senate and presidential elections.