The US 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 6% in coming months, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said. He argued that the effect on Bitcoin would depend on the cause: yields rising because of Federal Reserve tightening would weigh on the cryptocurrency, while increases driven by concerns over the US fiscal deficit, debt and Treasury supply could increase demand for alternative assets. The 10-year yield rose to 3.88% in 2022 as the Fed raised rates aggressively, while Bitcoin fell 64%. Since late 2023, the yield has increased 135 basis points to 5.23%, even as Bitcoin has roughly doubled. Thielen cited nominal US gross domestic product growth of about 6.56% and average annual federal debt growth of about 8.5% since 2020 as reasons yields could rise further. Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, also expects a possible move to 6%, citing the widening fiscal deficit and heavy bond issuance by artificial intelligence companies.