AI transition could force 11 million U.S. workers to change occupations by 2035

  • McKinsey estimates 11 million U.S. workers may change occupations by 2035.
  • Automation could reduce demand for 36 million jobs, while growth creates demand for 40 million.
  • Job openings reached a five-month low in August as worker confidence weakened.

About 11 million U.S. workers, or 6.5% of the current labor force, may need to move into different occupations by 2035 as automation and artificial intelligence reshape the economy, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. McKinsey estimates automation could reduce labor demand by 36 million jobs, while growth in AI-related fields and the broader economy could generate demand for 40 million jobs. About 25 million affected workers may remain in their current occupations as industry growth offsets automation, leaving 11 million facing occupational switches. The report says the challenge is worker mobility rather than an overall shortage of jobs, as an aging population is expected to leave the United States with more jobs but fewer workers. The transition comes as the labor market remains sluggish, with job openings at a five-month low in August, voluntary quits near a six-year low and layoffs declining for a second month. Glassdoor’s employee-confidence index reached a record low in September, while the Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9. Economists expect September payroll growth of 95,000, down from 162,000 in August, with unemployment holding at 4.1%.

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