RBA raises cash rate to 4.60% as August inflation reaches 4.0%

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, its fourth increase of 2026 and a 15-year high.
  • August consumer prices rose 0.4% monthly and 4.0% annually, with automotive fuel prices up 14.8% and housing costs remaining elevated.
  • Markets reduced the implied probability of a November hike to 20% from 35%, although the RBA said further tightening remained possible.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, its fourth increase of 2026, taking borrowing costs to their highest level since 2011 and total tightening this year to one percentage point. Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed August consumer prices rose 0.4% from July and 4.0% from a year earlier, up from 3.5% in July but below the 0.5% monthly forecast. Automotive fuel prices rose 14.8% as oil prices increased and government tax relief was unwound, while persistent housing costs also contributed. Core inflation remained elevated, with the trimmed mean rising 0.2% monthly and holding at 3.6% annually for a third month, above the RBA’s 2% to 3% target range. Markets reduced the implied probability of a November increase to 20% from 35%, although other measures later put it at 36% versus 56% before the data. The RBA said further increases remained possible, while Westpac retained November as its base case unless the Middle East conflict eased durably or Australia’s energy-cost outlook improved significantly.

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