Bitcoin gained 6.14% in September despite a stronger U.S. dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve signals that would typically pressure the cryptocurrency. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose nearly 2% to 101.61 on September 29, its highest level since late July, while Bitcoin also posted two technical signals associated with earlier recoveries: a September 8 golden cross after 293 days below its 200-day moving average and a September 20 weekly close at $81,159 above its 50-week average for the first time since November 9, 2025. Binance Research found that six of 12 earlier golden crosses following at least 150 days below the 200-day average produced peak gains of roughly 100% to 600% within a year, but it cautioned that the small, overlapping sample measured peak gains rather than 12-month holding returns. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn said similar 50-week moving-average reclaims historically pointed to bear-market lows. The dollar’s advance followed a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase on September 16 and officials’ indications that more tightening may be needed. Elevated oil prices amid deadlocked U.S.-Iran talks and a 30-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002 have added to inflation concerns. Bitcoin’s recent pullback also coincided with a U.S. 10-year yield reaching 5.17%, Brent crude exceeding $103, weak Treasury auction demand and strong business-activity data. Expectations for an October rate hike had moved toward 70% in an earlier report but later fell to roughly even odds. Traders await the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and monthly jobs report before the Federal Reserve’s October 28 meeting. October has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month by median return, with gains in 10 of 13 years, an average return of 19.92% and a median return of 14.71%.