HBM to consume 30% of DRAM wafers as prices forecast to rise 121%

  • Samsung Electronics expects HBM to use nearly 30% of global DRAM wafer capacity next year.
  • TrendForce forecasts HBM will use 30% of wafers but produce 13% of DRAM bits.
  • Counterpoint Research reported Samsung's HBM sales share rose to 33% in the second quarter.

High-bandwidth memory production is expected to consume nearly 30% of global DRAM wafer capacity next year, up from about 20% currently, as artificial intelligence infrastructure drives demand for HBM and server memory. TrendForce forecasts that HBM will account for 30% of DRAM wafers but only 13% of output measured in bits, reflecting the larger wafer requirements of vertically stacked memory products. The research firm also projects that average HBM selling prices will rise 121% next year from this year as supply remains constrained and higher-priced HBM4 gains share. Samsung Electronics is accelerating its HBM4 expansion, narrowing the sales-share gap with SK hynix after SK hynix's share fell to 50% in the second quarter and Samsung's rose to 33%, Counterpoint Research said. UBS projects Samsung will lead HBM bit shipments next year with 41%, ahead of SK hynix at 39%, although SK hynix says its HBM4 yields and quality have approached HBM3E levels and capacity is expanding as planned. The shift toward HBM and AI-server DDR5 will reduce wafer availability for PC and smartphone DRAM, while chip companies are considering eight-layer HBM configurations to stretch constrained supply.

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