Bitcoin is trading at $84,000 and has gained about 7% in September after rising 25% in August. With two calendar days remaining, a positive monthly close would break a pattern dating to 2013, when every previous August gain was followed by a September decline. It would also give bitcoin three consecutive monthly gains from July through September and push the third quarter more than 40% higher, marking its first positive quarter since Q3 2025. CoinGlass data show that bitcoin’s fourth quarter has historically been its strongest, with an average gain of roughly 77%. The macro backdrop is volatile, with the U.S. 10-year yield above 5.2%, the MOVE Index above 100 and near its year-to-date highs, and oil above $90 a barrel, adding to inflation concerns. Gold fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce. Anthropic’s reported plans for a November initial public offering, whose timing and size have not been finalized, and the U.S. midterm elections could draw capital or increase volatility in the fourth quarter.