Prediction markets track Bitcoin’s $100,000 and Ethereum’s September 2026 targets

  • Kalshi prices Bitcoin’s chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026 at 38%, while Polymarket’s ETH $2,800 September 2026 probability is 32%.
  • Kalshi’s Bitcoin probability previously peaked at 46%, and Polymarket’s ETH probabilities stood at 15% for $2,600 and 32% for $2,800.
  • The Ethereum market settles exclusively on Binance ETH/USDT one-minute highs, while an earlier Polymarket Bitcoin contract priced the March 31, 2027 target at 50.5%.

Prediction-market data assigns Bitcoin a roughly 33% to 38% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026, with Kalshi at 38%, while Polymarket’s Ethereum market puts the chance of ETH reaching $2,800 during the remaining period of September 2026 at 32%. Kalshi’s Bitcoin probability rose from 17% on Sept. 16 to 43% on Sept. 22 and briefly 46% on Sept. 23 before Bitcoin fell below $83,000; the latest reading is above the earlier 34% record. PPP’s monitoring showed the Ethereum $2,800 probability up 18% in 24 hours, while the $2,600 probability fell 34% to 15%.

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