Senegal faces complex debt treatment as debt reaches 130% of GDP

  • Senegal must secure IMF confidence in its debt sustainability before receiving further Fund financing.
  • Debt reached roughly 130% of GDP after misreported liabilities were disclosed in 2024.
  • France and China are Senegal’s largest bilateral creditors, with Paris Club talks widely expected.

Senegal must demonstrate to the International Monetary Fund that its debt is sustainable before unlocking much-needed Fund financing, a process complicated by debt-servicing costs, revenues, borrowing needs and the economy’s size. Misreported liabilities revealed in 2024 pushed debt, including state-owned enterprises and government-guaranteed obligations, to roughly 130% of GDP. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye is targeting a debt treatment within months, while officials have largely avoided the politically sensitive term "restructuring." Central government debt reached 25.2 trillion CFA francs ($44 billion) at end-2025, and arrears stood at 1.956 trillion CFA francs ($3.42 billion) in March 2025. The fiscal deficit forecast was raised to 7.6% of GDP as energy subsidies more than tripled, debt costs increased and revenues declined. France and China are Senegal’s largest bilateral creditors and are widely expected to co-chair talks for Paris Club creditors, although the Club has made no announcement. Multilateral lenders and some export-credit facilities are generally protected from losses, leaving roughly half of external debt potentially exposed. Senegal has excluded CFA franc-denominated debt from the proposed treatment, but its growing share of debt-servicing costs could increase pressure on external creditors and raise questions about whether domestic obligations should be included. Total return swaps, or TRS (derivative-based financing backed by local-currency bonds), add another complication because their treatment and creditor seniority remain largely untested in sovereign restructurings.

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