Tesla Semi Enters Volume Production as Investors Weigh Commercial Scale and Autonomy Upside

  • Tesla started volume production of the Semi at its dedicated Nevada factory.
  • The plant can eventually produce up to 50,000 electric trucks annually.
  • Morgan Stanley projects $17 billion in potential Semi software revenue by 2040.

Tesla has moved its long-delayed Semi into volume production at a dedicated Nevada factory, nine years after unveiling the electric truck. The plant is designed to produce up to 50,000 vehicles annually at full capacity, taking the Semi beyond pilot fleets and into broader commercial deployment. PepsiCo has operated early Semis since 2022, and other freight groups, including DHL and US Foods, have shown demand; a shipper coalition has also ordered 2,500 trucks. Tesla offers claimed ranges of 325 miles and about 500 miles, with a shorter-range version planned for regional routes. Higher diesel prices could improve the truck’s economics for fleets with low-cost depot charging, although electricity prices, maintenance, purchase costs, routes and energy contracts will determine savings. Morgan Stanley has estimated that autonomous trucking software could eventually generate about $17 billion in revenue and $7.5 billion in incremental EBIT if 82,000 Semis are on the road by 2040, excluding vehicle sales and charging revenue. Wall Street remains divided, with recent Tesla targets ranging from $268 at BNP Paribas to $485 at Cantor Fitzgerald. Investors remain more focused on deliveries, automotive margins, Cybercab progress and earnings than on the initial Semi milestone. Tesla shares have gained about 20% since early August but fell roughly 7% over two sessions after softer delivery forecasts raised demand concerns. The sources give conflicting dates for the next Roadster reveal, citing Oct. 1 and Oct. 15, with the latter attributed to a weather delay.

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Tesla Semi Enters Volume Production as Investors Weigh Commercial Scale and Autonomy Upside - CoinPost Terminal