Kalshi traders are assigning nearly 60% odds to September nonfarm payrolls exceeding 90,000 and roughly 50% odds to surpassing 100,000, a view broadly shared by traders on Polymarket. That positioning is stronger than the 84,000 consensus estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones, while prediction-market pricing is diverging from Wall Street bank expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 2. Earlier pricing put the 90,000 contract at 56%, with roughly $119,000 traded across September payroll contracts. Kalshi also offers contracts tied to higher payroll thresholds, unemployment data and combinations involving jobless claims.