Bitcoin returns below JPMorgan's $84,948 mining-cost floor

  • JPMorgan identifies Bitcoin's production cost as a soft floor for the market.
  • Bitcoin traded at $85,795 against JPMorgan's estimated $84,948 production cost.
  • Bitcoin spent 280 days below the estimated cost, exceeding the roughly 224-day 2018 downturn.

Bitcoin has fallen back below JPMorgan's estimated production cost after briefly rising to $87,000 earlier this week, renewing pressure on miners. In a September 23 note, analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou described the estimated $84,948 cost as a "soft floor" for the market; Bitcoin was trading at $85,795 at the time. The token had spent 280 days below that level, longer than the roughly 224-day mining downturn in 2018. Hashrate (the network's total computing power) fell about 19% from its October peak, while mining difficulty dropped roughly 15%, prompting higher-cost operators to shut down equipment, retire older rigs, seek cheaper power and redirect some capacity to AI workloads. CryptoQuant data indicates miner-to-exchange flows peaked near 24,000 BTC in February before smaller surges in June, August and September, supporting JPMorgan's view that forced selling has eased. However, miners continue transferring coins to exchanges during rallies, potentially to raise cash. Capriole's Hash Ribbons show the 30-day hashrate average recovering from about 895 EH/s in August to roughly 947 EH/s, barely above the 60-day average of 943 EH/s. With Bitcoin now about 2.4% below JPMorgan's estimated production cost, the market has returned to the threshold it recently moved above.

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