Dollar heads for biggest monthly euro gain in 14 months as U.S. growth lifts rates

  • The dollar neared its annual euro high and was headed for its biggest monthly euro gain in 14 months as stronger U.S. growth supported higher-rate expectations.
  • The euro fell more than 2% in September, briefly reaching $1.1312, its lowest level since May 2025, before trading at $1.1350–$1.1360 in London.
  • U.S. inflation and jobs data, ECB policy expectations, energy concerns and European political uncertainty shaped currency markets.

The dollar remained near this year’s high against the euro on September 30 and was poised for its largest monthly gain against the common currency in 14 months, although the euro strengthened in London trading to $1.1350–$1.1360, up $0.0020 from the previous day, after U.S. inflation data came in below expectations. Stronger U.S. growth and expectations that the Federal Reserve would tighten more than the European Central Bank supported the greenback, while markets also priced additional ECB rate increases over the coming year. Europe faced weak growth, energy-supply concerns, French debt and political gridlock, pressure to keep pace in artificial intelligence, and political uncertainty ahead of elections in France, Spain and Italy next year. Markets watched U.S. core PCE inflation and Friday’s jobs report for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next moves; New York Fed President John Williams said there was "no need for urgency" in raising rates, reducing bets on an October increase.

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