UK business confidence fell 12 points to 41% in September, its lowest level since April 2025, as higher global energy prices and uncertainty linked to the Iran war weakened economic optimism. Lloyds Bank said optimism about the wider economy dropped 18 points to 31%, while firms’ own trading outlook declined eight points to 50%. In Scotland, Bank of Scotland’s headline confidence measure fell from 55% in August to 36%, with economic optimism dropping 24 points to 21% and confidence in firms’ own trading outlook falling 15 points to 50%. Despite weaker sentiment, 46% of Scottish companies expect to increase staff levels over the next year, 47% plan to launch new products or services within six months, 45% intend to invest in staff training and 39% plan sustainability investment. Across the UK, 57% of businesses expect output to increase over the next year, while the share expecting activity to decline fell to 7%.