UK households face a severe energy-cost squeeze this winter as Cornwall Insight forecasts the typical annual dual-fuel bill will rise 16% in January to £1,999, an increase of £276 and the biggest rise since January 2023. The consultancy linked the projected increase to the escalating Iran war, disruptions to gas supplies and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February. EU gas storage is at its lowest September level in 15 years. Ofgem’s October 1 price-cap increase will raise the typical direct-debit bill in England, Scotland and Wales by 4% to £1,723. About 20 million households are on variable tariffs governed by the cap, while the earlier estimate cited more than four million homes on standard tariffs. Households can reduce costs by switching to a competitive fixed tariff, lowering boiler flow and hot-water temperatures, reducing thermostat settings, improving draught-proofing and insulation, and using thermostatic radiator valves. The cheapest available deal cited is Fuse Energy’s 12-month fix at £1,675, while 34 deals remain below the January forecast. Campaigners called for emergency support, including an emergency heat tariff, a social tariff and targeted help for vulnerable households. The End Fuel Poverty Coalition proposed capping gas at 10p per kilowatt hour, compared with Ofgem’s maximum standard-variable rate of 7.97p from October 1, while forecasts cited by the coalition put winter prices as high as 12p per hour. The government will remove the 5% VAT charge on household electricity until March 31 next year, saving an average bill payer about £45 annually, although gas will remain subject to 5% VAT. The October 28 Budget could bring further measures, but the Prime Minister has said poor public finances limit the government’s options. Heat-pump users can also reduce running costs by choosing a dedicated time-of-use tariff, with larger savings possible when combined with solar panels.