Inflation in Europe's four largest economies exceeded market expectations in September, with surging energy prices the main force behind the acceleration. Spain's harmonized inflation rose to 5%, the highest since February 2023, exceeding the 4.9% median forecast in a Bloomberg survey and remaining well above the European Central Bank's 2% target. Spain's national consumer-price index increased 4.9% year on year, while core inflation reached 3.1%, its highest since March 2024. France's harmonized inflation accelerated to 3.4% from 2.6% in August, and Poland's rose to 4.0% from 3.4%, moving above its central bank's tolerance band. Germany's preliminary data also showed faster inflation, while energy-price gains rose sharply. Markets had previously expected the ECB to raise rates again at its October meeting, although ECB Watch data as of September 29 showed a 70% probability of no change at 2.5%.