U.S. September ADP jobs data expected at 70,000 as October hike odds hit 50/50

Sep 30, 2026 07:30 (24d ago)

U.S. September ADP employment data is due at 20:15, with 70,000 additions expected.
3.3% is the forecast annual core PCE inflation rate for August.
Williams’ dovish signal pushed October rate-hike expectations to 50/50.

U.S. September ADP employment data is scheduled for 20:15, with an expected increase of 70,000 workers. At 20:30, August PCE (personal consumption expenditures) data favored by the Federal Reserve is due, with core annual inflation forecast to remain elevated at 3.3%. A surprisingly dovish signal from Williams pushed expectations for an October rate hike down to roughly 50/50. If both readings come in hotter than expected, bets on an increase could return.