Oil falls as Gulf exports recover while analysts lift 2026 forecasts

  • Oil prices fell as Persian Gulf exports recovered despite continuing disruption and risks around regional shipping routes.
  • Gulf exports reached 23.3 million barrels a day, while December Brent fell 0.9% to $95.31 and 2026 Brent was forecast at $89.05.
  • Hormuz supply risks, low inventories and geopolitical escalation kept physical crude prices elevated, although analysts expect a market surplus in 2027.

Oil prices extended losses as recovering Persian Gulf crude exports eased immediate supply concerns, while analysts raised their 2026 forecasts because a full restoration of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remains unlikely in the near term. December Brent crude futures fell 0.9% to $95.31 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 0.6% to $86.76. Goldman Sachs said Gulf exports, including dark exports, recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, matching the 2025 average, while crude exports reached 19 million barrels a day. A September survey of 30 economists and analysts put average 2026 Brent at $89.05 and U.S. crude at $83.90. Despite recovering flows, physical crude prices such as dated Brent remained near $120 a barrel because of geopolitical and inventory-related risk premiums; Goldman expects Brent to moderate to $85 by year-end and $80 in 2027.

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