BOJ shifts to faster, steadier rate hikes as inflation risks build

  • BOJ policymakers supported further rate increases after September's rise in borrowing costs.
  • Several members said underlying inflation had reached or was nearing the 2% target.
  • The September rate increase lifted the policy rate to 1.25%, a 31-year high.

The Bank of Japan has entered a phase focused on preventing inflation from exceeding its 2% target, after 13 years of efforts to lift price growth toward that level. A summary of opinions from the BOJ's September meeting showed that most policymakers supported following the latest rate increase with further rises in borrowing costs as inflationary pressure builds. Some members said the bank should accelerate tightening if prices show signs of overshooting its outlook, while another favored moving rates closer to a neutral level relatively soon to preserve room to respond to economic shocks. Several policymakers said underlying inflation had reached, or was close to reaching, 2%. Policymakers also cited elevated crude oil prices linked to Middle East tensions as an upside risk to inflation. The policy rate is 1.25%, its highest level since 1995, and former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai expects it to reach 2% by around June next year. The Tankan survey and inflation data will remain important tests for a possible October or December increase.

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