McKinsey report says 11 million U.S. workers may switch occupations by 2035

  • McKinsey estimates 11 million U.S. workers may change occupations by 2035.
  • Automation could displace 36 million positions while economic growth creates over 40 million jobs.
  • More than 75% of affected workers are concentrated in three occupational fields.

About 11 million U.S. workers, or roughly 7% of current employees, may need to change occupations by 2035 as artificial intelligence and automation reshape the labor market, the McKinsey Global Institute said in a report released Tuesday. McKinsey estimates automation could displace the equivalent of 36 million positions over the next decade, while growth in AI-driven sectors and the broader economy could create demand for more than 40 million jobs. About 25 million workers affected by automation may remain in their occupations as industry expansion absorbs much of the pressure, while the number needing to change occupations could range from 6 million to 16 million depending on the pace of automation. The transition could require about 770,000 occupational switches annually, or 3.6 times the historical average. More than 75% of potentially displaced workers are concentrated in office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics. Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times more likely than higher-wage workers to need a full occupational change, while workers without a college degree are about 1.8 times as likely as bachelor's degree holders to face one. McKinsey said only about one in seven affected workers has a direct pathway requiring minimal retraining and no wage loss; roughly four in 10 face a winding pathway requiring meaningful reskilling, and nearly half face an unpaved pathway involving larger skill gaps, credential requirements or other barriers. About 85% of growing jobs require a credential or certification. The report said demand for AI fluency in job postings rose approximately 11 times between 2022 and 2026, while demand for adaptability increased fivefold and demand for resilience, curiosity and willingness to learn tripled. It described the challenge as one of mobility rather than scarcity and warned that the transition may be the largest and most sustained workforce transformation in U.S. history. The findings came as labor-market confidence weakened, with the Conference Board's index falling 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, a 12-year low, and Glassdoor's Employee Confidence Index reaching a record low, according to CNN.

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