U.S. August PCE inflation undershoots forecasts as spending strengthens

  • U.S. core PCE inflation rose 3.0% annually and 0.2% monthly in August 2026.
  • Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.9%, or $190.8 billion, while inflation-adjusted spending climbed 0.6%.
  • Personal income rose 0.2% to $27,627 billion, while real disposable income was unchanged and October Fed hike odds weakened.

U.S. inflation rose less than expected in August 2026, with the core PCE price index increasing 0.2% monthly and 3.0% annually, while the broader PCE index rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised July's annual PCE increase to 3.4% from 3.7% and changed its methodology for software and accessories, portfolio management fees and legal services, with historical data revised back to 2021. Consumer spending increased $190.8 billion, or 0.9%, exceeding the 0.8% forecast; inflation-adjusted spending rose 0.6%, its fastest monthly increase since March 2025. Personal income rose 0.2% to $27,627 billion, while real disposable income was unchanged. The Federal Reserve tracks PCE measures against its 2% inflation target and recently raised its benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase in three years. Expectations for another increase in October weakened after the data and comments from New York Fed President John Williams, despite consumer confidence falling to a near 12-1/2-year low in September.

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U.S. August PCE inflation undershoots forecasts as spending strengthens - CoinPost Terminal