CME FedWatch sees 52.9% chance of October Fed rate hold

Sep 30, 2026 12:45 (23d ago)

CME FedWatch published updated probabilities for Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions.
52.9% was the October probability for unchanged rates, versus 47.1% for a 25-basis-point hike.
December probabilities were 10% unchanged, 51.8% for 25 basis points, and 38.2% for 50 basis points.

CME FedWatch data published on Sept. 30 put the probability of the Federal Reserve leaving rates unchanged through October at 52.9%, compared with 47.1% for a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. By December, the probabilities were 10% for no change, 51.8% for a cumulative 25-basis-point increase and 38.2% for a cumulative 50-basis-point increase.