Persian Gulf oil exports recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, matching the 2025 average, even as crude prices remained elevated. Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said exports doubled during September, with higher shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers driving the rebound. The recovery came despite an attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline that disrupted flows for nearly two weeks and an ongoing Houthi blockade of Saudi exports through the Bab al-Mandab strait. Estimated crude exports made up nearly 90% of the September recovery, reaching 19 million barrels a day, or 108% of the 2025 average. Saudi exports more than doubled in September to 11.6 million barrels a day, while the UAE also exceeded its 2025 average. Satellite data reportedly showed no seaborne crude or main refined-product exports from Iran during the month. Goldman estimates the global oil market was roughly balanced in September, but says a large risk premium is keeping physical prices such as dated Brent near $120 a barrel. The bank expects Brent to moderate to $85 a barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027. It attributed the premium to risks that escalation could threaten long-term oil production, as well as record-low global stocks excluding OECD commercial inventories and the resulting need to rebuild supplies quickly.