Markets see 62.9% chance of no change at October Fed decision

Sep 30, 2026 13:06 (23d ago)

Markets expect the Fed to decide on interest rates in October.
62.9% expect no change, while 37.1% expect a 25-basis-point hike.
The expectations follow cooling PCE inflation, according to the market update.

Market expectations for the October Federal Reserve decision show a 62.9% probability of no change and a 37.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike after cooling PCE inflation. PCE inflation refers to the personal consumption expenditures price measure, which the Fed closely monitors when assessing monetary policy.