Brazil’s presidential election is entering its final days before the October 4 first-round vote, with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva expected to lead the 13-candidate field but fall short of the majority needed to avoid an October 25 runoff. Polls suggest a tight likely second round against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, while voters are increasingly focused on stagnant purchasing power, rising household debt and the affordability of everyday goods, symbolized by picanha, a prized Brazilian cut of beef. An Atlas poll put Lula at 47.6% and Flavio at 47.7% in a hypothetical runoff, while a Quaest survey found 5% of voters undecided. Only 10% of Brazilians in a recent survey said their income rose faster than living costs over the past year, and central-bank data showed households devoted 26.6% of income to non-mortgage debt payments by June. Lula has announced debt restructuring and an executive order immediately banning online gambling, citing household debt and addiction; the measure requires congressional approval within 120 days. The campaign also covers crime, foreign policy, corruption and the environment. Flavio has pledged tougher security policies and broad tax and spending cuts but offered limited economic detail, while Lula has emphasized welfare, debt relief, security measures, Brazil’s independence and ties with China. Prediction markets have reduced the probability that Lula will receive the most first-round votes, although the effect of the gambling ban and economic concerns on voter sentiment remains uncertain. The election has strained Brazil’s relationship with US President Donald Trump, while the Ibovespa rose 1.4% to 186,341 amid tighter election polling and softer US PCE inflation; Brazil’s PPI accelerated to 2.5% year over year in August.