France bond spread widens as ECB intervention appears unlikely

  • France's public debt reached €3.596 trillion, equal to 119% of GDP, at end-June.
  • The government expects debt to approach 122% of GDP next year.
  • France proposed €54 billion in spending cuts as its budget again exceeds EU limits.

France's public debt stood at a record €3.596 trillion, or 119% of gross domestic product, at the end of June and the government expects it to approach 122% of GDP next year as the budget again exceeds EU limits. The fiscal deterioration has heightened investor concern before the 2027 presidential election, while France's 10-year yield reached 4.94% and its premium over German debt widened to roughly 131 basis points. The government has proposed €54 billion in spending cuts and targets a 5% deficit in 2027, compared with 5.4% this year, but must secure parliamentary support amid political resistance. Interest costs are projected to exceed €90 billion in 2027, surpassing planned spending on defense and schooling. Scope downgraded France's long-term ratings in September, while Fitch maintained its A+ sovereign rating with a stable outlook in August. ECB intervention through the Transmission Protection Instrument appears unlikely because France's market repricing has reflected fiscal and political developments and the country remains subject to the EU excessive deficit procedure.

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