Democrats have broadened their potential path to the Senate majority beyond traditionally competitive states, with races now considered competitive in 10 states that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024: Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina and Kentucky. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats must defend two seats in states Trump carried while winning four Republican-held seats, including at least two in double-digit Trump states. Kalshi prices Democratic Senate control at 63%, up from 49% on Sept. 14, while its Ohio market gives former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown a 61% chance to defeat Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Republican approval has weakened, spending advantages remain in several expansion states, and the number of competitive races could force both parties to redirect resources before Election Day.