Heating oil households are projected to spend nearly $2,300 on average from mid-November through mid-March, a 31.3% increase from last winter, as the war with Iran disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and lifts Brent crude above $106 a barrel. Nearly 4.8 million U.S. homes use heating oil, with about 82% located in the Northeast. Natural-gas households face a more favorable outlook, with the American Gas Association projecting average space-heating costs of about $497, down 14% from last winter, compared with roughly $794 for electric space heating. The broader National Energy Assistance Directors Association forecast puts average winter heating costs at $1,030 over the coldest four months, an increase of more than 8.7%, because costs vary by fuel. El Niño is expected to make the winter warmer than recent ones, but higher global energy prices remain a pressure point. Future risks include delayed pipelines, redirected Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports linked to Iran-related disruption, electrification and data-center demand.