Polymarket traders assign a 37% chance to a Federal Reserve rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for October 27–28, 2026, versus 61% for no change. The decision is expected at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28. The latest pricing sits at the upper end of the 55.5–61.5% no-change range and near the lower end of the 36.5–43.5% range for a 25-basis-point hike recorded on September 30, 2026. More than $17 million has been traded on the October contract, which settles according to the federal funds target rate stated in the official FOMC statement. The committee unanimously raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% at its September 15–16, 2026 meeting. Polymarket’s pricing often tracks CME fed funds futures, while Kalshi has shown closely aligned odds for the same October outcomes, with differences usually within a few percentage points. Incoming inflation and employment data are the key variables before the meeting: stronger inflation could lift hike odds toward the recent range’s upper end, while softer data could push them lower. Traders will also watch whether Polymarket’s hike odds move outside the 36.5–43.5% band and whether Kalshi and CME pricing continue to move together.