Persian Gulf oil exports, including so-called dark exports, recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, matching the 2025 average, even as crude prices remained elevated. Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said exports doubled during September and that higher shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers, drove the rebound. Crude exports made up nearly 90% of September's recovery, reaching 19 million barrels a day, or 108% of their 2025 average, over the last week. Saudi exports more than doubled in September to 11.6 million barrels a day, while the UAE also exceeded its 2025 average. The recovery followed an attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline that disrupted flows for nearly two weeks and came despite the continuing Houthi blockade of Saudi exports through the Bab al-Mandab strait. Satellite data reportedly showed no seaborne crude or main refined-product exports from Iran during September. Goldman estimated the global oil market was roughly balanced during the month but said a large risk premium kept physical prices such as dated Brent near $120 a barrel. The bank expects Brent to moderate to $85 a barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027. It attributed the premium to downside risks to long-term oil production from escalation, as well as record-low global stocks excluding OECD commercial stocks and the resulting incentive to rebuild inventories quickly.