Persian Gulf crude exports have returned to roughly 98% of pre-war levels, offering some relief to global buyers, but refined-product shipments have recovered only to about 3 million barrels per day, or 58% of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven estimate refined-product exports at roughly 50% of their 2025 average, while JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said crude supplies have largely normalized even as refined products remain constrained. Damage to Middle Eastern refineries has left about 2 million barrels per day of capacity offline, and the greater flammability of refined products makes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz riskier amid threats from Iranian militias. The global market is also affected by attacks on Russia's refining complex in the Ukraine war and Moscow's extension of a national diesel export ban through at least October. US diesel prices reached a record average of $6.41 per gallon on Wednesday, up roughly 73% from a year earlier, while gasoline averaged $4.43. The White House is considering a diesel export ban, which could lower US prices in the short term but increase pressure on the globally linked market. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said global diesel shortages are increasing competition for US supplies. Elevated gasoline prices are adding pressure on US consumers fewer than 40 days before midterm elections important to the White House and Republican control of Congress.