S&P 500 falls 0.45% in September despite bond-market turmoil

  • S&P 500 ended September down 0.45% despite turmoil in bonds and commodities.
  • Bond-market volatility rose roughly 47% in September, its largest monthly increase since February 2021.
  • Investors are watching two more Fed rate decisions, corporate earnings and Middle East developments.

The S&P 500 ended September down just 0.45% despite a sharp bond-market selloff, rising oil prices and interest-rate increases by central banks worldwide. Brent crude returned above $100 a barrel, while the bond market's fear gauge rose roughly 47%, its largest monthly increase since February 2021. The divergence between resilient stocks and stressed bonds has raised questions about how long equities can withstand higher yields and energy costs, as well as concerns about potential market dislocations. Bonds were among the quarter's biggest losers. A Vanguard exchange-traded fund tracking the total U.S. bond market fell 5% this year, while the iShares National Muni Bond ETF declined roughly 6%. Higher yields have hurt existing bond holdings, although they have also made bond funds cheaper and improved the income available to new buyers. The outlook remains tied to oil prices and interest rates, with the correlation between crude prices and the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since the 1990s, according to Cboe Global Markets. Higher fuel and borrowing costs weighed on cruise lines and airlines. Norwegian Cruise Line fell 31% in the quarter and 34% this year, its worst quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2022. Royal Caribbean dropped 16% in the quarter and nearly 5% this year, while Carnival declined 14% in the quarter and 20% this year. Carnival nevertheless beat Wall Street's earnings estimates as strong consumer demand offset higher fuel costs, and analysts described the outlook as solid. American Airlines fell 26% in the quarter and 13% this year. Precious metals also declined as higher rates reduced the appeal of assets that do not pay income: gold futures fell more than 6% in September, silver dropped 9% and palladium sank 12%. Technology stocks provided the main support for equities. Meta rose 29% and Microsoft gained 38% in the quarter, their best quarterly performances in two years and since 1998, respectively. The technology sector advanced 5% in September, helping limit the S&P 500's decline even though most sectors fell. The market-capitalization-weighted index gained 2% in the third quarter, while an equal-weight version fell 1.55%. Energy stocks benefited from higher crude prices. Phillips 66 surged 51% in the quarter and 98% this year, while Chevron rose 23%, ConocoPhillips gained 20% and ExxonMobil increased 19% in the quarter. Energy and technology were the S&P 500's top-performing sectors this year. Bitcoin rose more than 40% in the third quarter, recovering from a slump and reaching $86,500 in September, its highest level since January. The rally came despite the CLARITY Act failing to pass the Senate, although Bitcoin remained below its record high of more than $126,000 nearly a year earlier. Eight months into the Iran war, diesel prices had reached records and long-term bond yields were at their highest levels in decades, while the economy remained resilient and corporate profits robust. After falling 5% in the first quarter and rising 15% in the second, the S&P 500 gained 2% in the third quarter and was up almost 12% for the year, putting it on track for a fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains. Investors' focus for the rest of the year is on two further Federal Reserve rate decisions, another corporate earnings season and developments in the Middle East.

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