BOJ Tankan shows resilient manufacturers as yen falls on muted October hike bets

  • The BOJ’s Tankan survey showed large-manufacturer sentiment rising to +24 from +22, its highest level in more than eight years.
  • The yen fell 0.5% to 158.21 per dollar as October hike odds dropped below 20%, while a December increase remained fully priced in.
  • The BOJ’s benchmark rate stands at 1.25% after June and September increases, and the 10-year JGB yield reached 3.085%.

The Bank of Japan’s Oct. 1 Tankan survey showed large-manufacturer sentiment rising to +24 from +22, its sixth consecutive quarterly improvement and highest level in more than eight years, despite higher energy costs and disruption to Japan’s oil-import routes. Large non-manufacturer sentiment fell to +35 from +37. The yen weakened 0.5% to 158.21 per dollar after markets viewed the BOJ’s September policy summary as insufficiently hawkish to support an October rate increase: swaps-implied odds fell below 20% from above 30%, although a December hike was fully priced in. The BOJ has raised its benchmark rate twice, in June and September, to 1.25%, while the 10-year JGB yield reached 3.085%.

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