Bond traders are adding a "Warsh premium" to Treasury yields because they are still trying to assess Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, former Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said. Kaplan, now a Goldman Sachs vice chairman, said markets are pricing more tightening than the Fed projected after the central bank raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, its first increase since 2023. The Fed's dot plot shows one further increase this year, while Warsh declined to submit his own projection. Kaplan also identified diesel-supply risks linked to the Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries as a second source of inflation pressure. He would skip an October hike and revisit policy in December, while saying markets may be overestimating the Fed's eventual action. Higher yields and a stronger dollar could weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin.